← HVN Store Championship (Road to Regionals) @ Favonia Kampar
Water FractalTier 2
at HVN Store Championship (Road to Regionals) @ Favonia Kampar
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.0% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.8% | +13.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Triskit | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |